Demand Forecast
Projected health service demand under Stats NZ demographic scenarios.
Demand Projections —
Methodology Note
Evidence-Based Leading Indicators
The following relationships are established in NZ health literature. These are qualitative commentary notes, not quantitative adjustments to the model:
| Signal | Indicator | Lag |
|---|---|---|
| GP access difficulty | ED presentation rate | ~3 months |
| Housing deprivation quintile | Child hospitalisation rate | Variable |
| Workforce vacancy rate | Median wait time growth | ~6 months |
| Age 85+ population share | Aged residential care demand | ~2 years |
| Amenable mortality | GP density (rural) | Long-term |
Related: Current workforce capacity may not meet projected demand. See Workforce for regional vacancy rates. These projections do not account for equity — see Equity Gap Explorer for who is most affected.
Source: Stats NZ subnational population projections + Health NZ service access data | CC BY 4.0 / Crown Copyright
Projections are estimates based on demographic change only. They do not account for policy changes, technology, or service model shifts.