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-10-06","balance_above_cushion_tj":-1582.217,"closing_balance_tj":4417.783,"cushion_gas_tj":6000.0,"daily_change_tj":-34.771}],"source_page":"https://www.gasindustry.co.nz/data/resources/gas-storage/","source_file":"https://weblink.blob.core.windows.net/%24web/AhuroaStorage.xlsx","caveats":["Ahuroa is one storage facility, not New Zealand's national gas inventory.","Balance above cushion is closing balance minus published cushion gas; it is not a claim about accessible or deliverable supply.","Only the source's latest daily observations are charted; older monthly history is excluded."]},"model_usage":"Observed domestic energy-buffer context only. These gas metrics do not alter the liquid-fuel model until a substitution relationship passes holdout testing."},"methodology":{"model_version":"2.0","composite_method":"Weighted sigmoid scoring (6 components)","weights":{"hormuz_disruption":0.3,"stock_depletion":0.25,"price_acceleration":0.2,"supply_chain":0.1,"demand_signal":0.1,"gdelt_narrative":0.05},"assumptions":["NZ imports roughly 60% of refined fuel from refineries dependent on Hormuz crude (live model parameter: 61.5% / 0.62)","Stock data uses MBIE fuel stock and shipping updates when available; quarterly MBIE Oil Statistics are a fallback","Operational pressure uses effective total cover: in-country stock plus on-water stock adjusted for assumed rerouting delays","Depletion model assumes linear consumption and constant disruption fraction","Cape of Good Hope rerouting adds ~14 days to tanker transit when Hormuz disruption >30%","MSO minimums: petrol 28d, diesel 21d, jet fuel 24d (per Jan 2025 regulations)","MSO compliance is withheld because national aggregate stock does not establish compliance by each obliged importer; only in-country and within-EEZ stock is legally eligible","The scenario threshold is 14 days of effective physical cover; it is not a rationing forecast","Industry cascade thresholds are domain estimates, not empirically calibrated","Fuel-price change is measured against the mean for 15 January to 27 February 2026","Price data from MBIE weekly monitoring \u2014 typically a 1 week publication lag"],"data_sources":{"fuel_prices":"MBIE Weekly Fuel Price Monitoring (direct file or Figure.NZ archive of the MBIE source file) + Gaspy live daily stats (reference snapshot)","fuel_stocks":"MBIE fuel stock and shipping updates (in-country, within-EEZ, and outside-EEZ source split) + MBIE Quarterly Oil Statistics fallback","hormuz_traffic":"IMF PortWatch daily chokepoint crossings preferred; Sentinel-1 SAR vessel density is exported separately","upstream_market":"Yahoo Finance daily futures and FX (reference series)","nz_flights":"OpenSky ADS-B flight activity (daily)","gdelt_events":"GDELT Project crisis event monitoring (6-hourly)","retail_basket":"Woolworths NZ anonymous public product search API (daily reference basket)","port_calls":"Port of Auckland + Port of Tauranga public vessel schedule pages","domestic_gas":"Gas Industry Company production, consumption, and Ahuroa storage workbooks"},"confidence_notes":{"stock_staleness":"10 days since last stock measurement","price_coverage":"3522 price observations across 3 fuel types","sar_observations":"49 security indicator calculations","price_model_input":"Composite risk currently scores MBIE weekly price observations; Gaspy is included as a same-day retail reference only","domestic_gas_model_input":"Observed domestic energy-buffer context only. These gas metrics do not alter the liquid-fuel model until a substitution relationship passes holdout testing.","gaspy_reference":"Gaspy snapshot 07 Oct 2026 @ 07:47PM: 91 $3.534/L, diesel $3.226/L, 95 $3.722/L across 2,480 stations; 78,658 price confirmations in the last 7 days","upstream_reference":"Upstream reference latest: Brent 2026-10-07, Heating Oil 2026-10-07, RBOB 2026-10-07, FX 2026-10-07","retail_reference":"Retail basket reference 2026-10-07 06:53:42.636783+00:00: 1082 product rows across 13 essential-goods probes; catalog availability ratio 100.0%; exact basket matched 13/13 items","port_reference":"Port schedule reference 2026-10-07 19:30:05+00:00: 268 expected arrivals, 16 vessels in port, 60 recent departures; 19 container-linked calls"}}}