{"schema_version":"fuel-abm-summary-v1.1.0","publication":{"state":"unavailable","is_publishable":false,"reasons":["No explicitly approved run has passed historical holdout validation"]},"latest_experimental_run":{"run_id":"9fd65c43-fc88-4daf-8901-295f81a09438","as_of_date":"2026-08-01","model_version":"nz-maritime-fuel-abm-v1.4.0","status":"success","validation_state":"failed","started_at":"2026-08-03T04:02:03.532239+00:00","validation_summary":{"parameter_fit_target_count":45,"forecast_calibration_target_count":24,"validation_target_count":36,"calibration_mae_days":5.5116,"raw_validation_mae_days":2.5448,"validation_mae_days":2.2848,"validation_system_mae_days":3.1928,"raw_interval_coverage_80":0.5,"interval_coverage_80":0.9722,"interval_mean_width_days":10.2517,"forecast_change_weight":0.3,"best_onshore_benchmark":"damped_robust_trend","best_benchmark_mae_days":2.1638,"best_benchmark":"recent_median_3","best_benchmark_system_mae_days":3.0872,"benchmark_skill_score":-0.056,"benchmark_system_skill_score":-0.0342,"provenance_gate_passed":false,"rolling_origin_audit":{"fold_count":4,"horizon_days":14,"target_count":36,"beats_benchmark":false,"onshore_mae_days":2.5411,"benchmark_mae_days":{"persistence":2.3694,"four_week_cycle":3.0056,"recent_median_3":2.2111,"damped_robust_trend":2.4849},"onshore_skill_score":-0.1492,"best_system_benchmark":"persistence","stock_system_mae_days":3.2012,"best_onshore_benchmark":"recent_median_3","stock_system_skill_score":-0.0589,"benchmark_system_mae_days":{"persistence":3.0231,"four_week_cycle":3.5356,"recent_median_3":3.3372,"damped_robust_trend":3.2974}},"reasons":["Parameter-fit stock-system MAE exceeds 5.0 days","Observable forecast does not beat the strongest predeclared baseline by 5% on both onshore and stock-system error","Rolling-origin forecast does not beat the strongest predeclared baseline by 5% on both onshore and stock-system error","Historical stock values come from a later archive rather than multiple as-known publication vintages; prospective validation is still required"]}}}